Facts on Snipers 

In the past, there had been high-profile assassinations by the so-called sniper, sending the public into a frenzy and the other possible targets into a panic.  For who would not be alarmed by an unseen and unheard angel of death, lurking in the distance, ready to deliver his blow?  But closely examining these cases, investigators found out that the engagement distance in all these incidents were within 100 meters, far below the distance a real military sniper is trained for.  At this distance, an ordinary rifleman with an M16, popularly known as the Armalite can hit a target because it is rated to up to 400 meters.  Other assault rifles chambered for bigger calibers such as the M14 with its 7.62 rounds are effective at slightly longer distances.  On the other hand, real snipers with their specially designed rifles can hit targets well beyond 800 meters.  The current world records for longest kill shots are over two kilometers!

So, what insights do these data offer us and how do these impact the security practices that we had discussed in our previous columns? 

First off:  kill the myth.  It does not take a sniper to hit a target at 100 meters.  Any Tom, Dick, and Harry with a decent rifle can hit a human-sized target using iron sights—and more so with a riflescope.  And second:  “Sniper-assassins” can pop up anywhere to shoot and kill.  No, they don’t.  They also need to plan, execute, and escape just like the other assassins using pistols.  Having these two things in mind, defense or security precautions against the so-called snipers will again revolve around the same principles of personal security that we had discussed, with slight adjustments to adapt to the modus operandi of these criminals. Nevertheless, these criminals will still follow the Plan, Attack, Escape pattern and inevitably, the planning part will entail a lot of surveillance.  Again, this is where we shall intervene again.  (But of course!)

So let’s take a look at the requirements of a successful hit from the perspective of a perpetrator.  For a “sniper assassin” to have a higher chance of accomplishing his mission, the target must be relatively still compared to the targets of the motorcycle riding ones.  As such, potential targets should examine their routines.  Where are they regularly sitting or standing still for long periods of time?  Is this location visible from a vantage point in the distance?  Examining this requirement will take out most of the stress in sniper defense for personal security purposes.  Never mind that movie where a sniper tracks in his scope the victim riding in a car and kills him with a single bullet.  That happens only in the movies.  If a VIP identifies such location or situation in his routine, a simple change in position or addition of a blinder such as a curtain will often solve the problem. 

From the point of view of the “sniper assassin,” finding this routine and location is even more challenging, and preparing for the attack exposes him to vulnerabilities that we can exploit.  If we identified a location, situation, or opportunity for a sniper attack, we can set up our surveillance detection system around this vulnerability.  In the case of the attack on a mayor in Batangas, witness accounts revealed that for several Mondays before the attack, unidentified persons were seen roaming in the cemetery adjacent to the place where the sniper’s nest was eventually found.  From this knowledge, we can deduce the obvious lesson that surveillance will always precede the attack, and detection of this surveillance is paramount if we are to disrupt the planning process of these criminals.  In the case of these sniper-assassins though, we just need to increase the radius of our surveillance detection area and the security response in case of attack. 

The vantage point varies but there are common denominators:  it must accord concealment for extended periods of time, it must have protection from the elements especially if the target has erratic schedules and may need long periods of observation, and it is relatively free from observation from the outside among others.   Vacant lots, buildings, and even a car can be used as a sniper’s nest. 

Because of the logistics involved in this kind of operation, perpetrators would most likely use a four-wheeled vehicle.  Moreover, while snipers may project a lone wolf persona, effective middle-distance shooters work with a buddy or several others not only for ranging but also for security, thus red flags should be raised if, in the course of surveillance detection, a vehicle with several suspicious personalities is detected in a possible attack site.  Another indicator to look for is the rifle bag which could be in the form of a sports bag such as the ubiquitous tennis bag where several M16s can fit.  Other known containers used to disguise a rifle are the guitar case and billiard cue stick carrier.  

In summary, while sniper assassins present a new set of challenges for security professionals and potential targets alike, the age-old adage in intelligence that goes, “The more things change, the more they remain the same” rings ever true.  Methods may change, but the general principles remain the same:  Plan, Execute, Escape so for us, we detect and catch the bad guys while they are still in the planning stage!

Note: This article was initially published in the printed Issue No. 15 of The Corporate, Guide and Style for Professionals magazine.